We’re going to have predicted grades for the Leaving Cert. We don’t have full details on how the mechanism is going to work yet, but assuming the people in charge are literate in experimental design and statistics we can guess the main ideas. A key question: are they going to publish details of the model?

A lot of people are worried about some specific potential weaknesses in the system. Some are real, some are not, some are real but no worse than in a normal year. Some are systematic, and some are random. Some can be mitigated, some can’t. This post tries to sort them out.